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The data in the first half of the year is rising steadily. Construction machinery will maintain steady growth in the next three years.

2018-08-29


According to the latest data, in July, the 24 major excavator manufacturers included in the statistics sold a total of more than 11100 excavators of various types, an increase of 45.28 percent over the same period last year, and sales reached a record high in the same month for the third consecutive month. In the first seven months, the cumulative sales volume of excavators exceeded 131000 units, a sharp increase of 58.65 per cent compared with about 82700 units in the same period last year, and the possibility of annual sales reaching a record high was further increased compared with the previous month.

According to the latest data, in July, the 24 major excavator manufacturers included in the statistics sold a total of more than 11100 excavators of various types, an increase of 45.28 percent over the same period last year, and sales reached a record high in the same month for the third consecutive month.

In the first seven months, the cumulative sales volume of excavators exceeded 131000 units, a sharp increase of 58.65 per cent compared with about 82700 units in the same period last year, and the possibility of annual sales reaching a record high was further increased compared with the previous month.

In July, the 11 major domestic bulldozer manufacturers included in the statistics sold a total of about 480 bulldozers of various types, an increase of 38.8 percent over the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of bulldozers reached more than 4950 units, up 36.89 percent year on year.

In the first seven months of 2018, the sales data of various types of construction machinery showed a steadily rising situation. It is expected that the rapid growth of the industry this year has been established. According to the analysis of some research institutions, based on the six favorable factors of the renewal of equipment stock, the new equipment demand and the development of the enterprise itself, it is expected that the construction machinery industry will maintain steady growth in the next three years.

Stock equipment replacement

Research data show that 80% of the future demand of the construction machinery industry comes from the renewal and upgrading of equipment, which is relatively stable and has less downside risk.

Generally speaking, the life cycle of construction machinery products is 8-10 years, the last round of sales peak concentrated around 2011, 2017-2019 is the peak stage of construction machinery and equipment into the elimination and renewal iteration. According to statistics, at present, the market of construction machinery industry has more than 700 million units, while about 2.4 million old equipment are facing elimination, which provides market space for new machine sales and further stimulates the demand of the industry.

At the same time, whether the national or local requirements for environmental protection are becoming more and more stringent, most of the existing equipment in the market belongs to the national 2. national three emissions, even if less than the age of the machine may be forced to ban because of environmental considerations. Therefore, the environmental protection policy and the age of the two aspects to further expand the demand for the upgrading of construction machinery.

Policy-driven infrastructure investment is expected to pick up.

In the first half of 2018, my country's fixed asset investment growth rate was 6%, and infrastructure investment increased by 7.3 year-on-year. The growth rate was significantly lower than expected. This also affected the overall development of China's economy to a certain extent. To this end, in late July, the State Council meeting and the Politburo meeting both put forward the development tone of "protecting infrastructure and promoting investment. A more proactive fiscal policy and a rebound in PPP project investment, coupled with a loose monetary policy, have ensured the smooth progress of infrastructure projects in all aspects, and can also alleviate investors' concerns about the slowdown in industry growth.

According to many years of development experience, China's construction machinery sales and fixed asset investment are positively correlated. It is expected that with the landing of various infrastructure projects in September, the construction machinery industry will bring real sales.

Construction machinery continuous penetration machinery for people

In recent years, with the aging of the population in our country, the shortage of labor, the labor cost has increased significantly, and the trend of machinery replacing people is obvious. Previously, China's rural market road expansion, farmland construction and water conservancy facilities construction basically rely on labor, but now there is a lack of young rural labor, and most young people are rarely willing to do this work, labor costs have risen sharply, giving birth to the trend of machinery to replace labor. In the past, the per capita ownership of excavators in China was low, and the penetration rate of construction machinery is expected to continue to increase in the future. Moreover, not only in the field of construction machinery, but also in various industrial fields, the trend of mechanical substitutes is very obvious.

Recovery in mining investment provides new growth momentum

After the 2008 financial crisis, the global economic growth stall led to a decline in demand for mineral resources, the global mining industry as a whole showed a trend of stagnant growth, declining investment and capacity clearance. Since 2017, the global mining industry has shown a warming trend.

Taking China's data for the first half of 2018 as an example, from January to June, the added value of industries above the national scale increased by 6.7 compared with the same period last year. Among them, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.6 year-on-year, and the growth rate expanded by 0.3 percentage points; the investment in the mining industry changed from a decline to an increase, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2.

The recovery of the mining industry is of great significance to boost the demand for mining equipment. Before, mining equipment has been Carter, Komatsu and other foreign enterprises monopoly. In recent years, with the development of domestic construction machinery, the competitiveness of mining equipment produced by Xugong, Sany and other construction machinery enterprises has been continuously improved, tearing open the door of the mining machinery market, which is conducive to the entry of domestic equipment.

Comprehensive strength to enhance the steady growth of exports

The improvement of the overall level of China's construction machinery industry has not only increased the share of the domestic market, but also achieved remarkable results in opening up overseas markets. In the development of overseas markets, the countries along the "Belt and Road" have become a more important target market for China's construction machinery enterprises. China's construction machinery and equipment have frequently appeared in the construction of major international corridors such as the China-Laos Railway, the China-Thailand Railway, the Hungary-Serbia Railway, and the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway. Moreover, the emerging market represented by India has a low urbanization rate, poor infrastructure construction, and a large demand for construction machinery, which is more conducive to the export of China's construction machinery.

Enterprises operate more carefully to control risks.

Due to the five-year cold winter period of the industry, even if the development of the industry situation is hot again, China's construction machinery enterprises still maintain a cautious attitude in production, sales and industry prediction.

The good development trend of the construction machinery industry has not made companies forget about it and blindly increase production capacity. On the contrary, most companies in the industry have begun to focus on strengthening cash management and purifying high-quality customers. The long-term production and sales methods also help reduce the contraction of profit margins and receivables. The risk of accounts receivable.

To sum up, based on the assumption of stable operation of the domestic economy and continuous transformation and upgrading, China's construction machinery industry will not decline significantly in the next three years at least, and can maintain steady growth.

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