National Bureau of Statistics Releases First 11 Months of Economic Operation Data
On December 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released the operation of the national economy in November. In November, the growth rate of industrial production slowed down, and the growth of mid-to-high-end industries was good; the service industry grew steadily, and the emerging service industry developed rapidly; the investment growth rate continued to pick up, and manufacturing investment and private investment maintained rapid growth; market sales The growth rate has fallen, and the proportion of online retail has increased significantly; the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports has slowed, and the trade surplus has expanded year-on-year.
At a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council, Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in November, most indicators of the national economy operated relatively smoothly, but the growth rate of some major indicators slowed down, indicating downward pressure on the economy. At present, the uncertainty and complexity of the world economy are increasing, but there are more favorable factors to support the economic operation next year.
Most economic indicators run more smoothly
In November, most indicators of the national economy ran relatively smoothly, but the growth rate of some major indicators slowed down. For example, in November, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size fell by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
"To analyze China's economy, we should not only look at it in combination with the general environment of the world economy, but also look at the performance of the economy for a long time." Mao Shengyong said that at present, the global economic growth momentum has weakened, the growth of international trade has slowed down, commodity prices have fallen more, some leading indicators have dropped significantly, and the variables, challenges and uncertainties of the world economy have increased.
In this context, China's economy is still operating in a reasonable range. From the perspective of economic growth, in the first 11 months, the year-on-year growth rate of industry was 6.3, a slight slowdown of 0.1 percentage points from the previous 10 months; the service industry production index increased by 7.7 year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous 10 months. Fixed asset investment increased by 5.9 year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous 10 months; total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 9.1, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage points from the previous 10 months. In terms of employment, in November, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 4.8, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The urban survey unemployment rate in big cities was relatively stable, and new urban employment maintained growth. In terms of prices, in November, CPI rose 2.2 per cent year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while PPI rose 2.7 per cent year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Since the beginning of this year, new kinetic energy has maintained relatively rapid growth, and market players have continued to increase substantially. New industries are growing rapidly. Among the industrial enterprises above designated size, the value-added growth rate of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and strategic emerging industries has maintained relatively rapid growth. The rapid development of new business formats, the accelerated development of online and offline sales integration, online sales maintained rapid growth, and the proportion of the total retail sales of consumer goods continued to increase. From a structural point of view, while the service industry has maintained steady and rapid growth, the modern service industry has grown faster; investment growth has stabilized and rebounded, especially the investment structure is being optimized, and manufacturing investment has maintained a continuous rebound since April this year. The situation, private investment has continued to maintain a rapid growth rate of more than 8% this year.
Import and export situation is generally better than expected
In November, my country's total import and export volume was 2833.7 billion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 percent, and the growth rate was 13.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. In the first 11 months of this year, the total import and export volume was 27877.7 billion billion yuan, up 11.1 percent year on year.
Mao Shengyong said that in the first 11 months, my country's import and export situation was good and better than expected. In terms of scale, the scale of imports and exports in the first 11 months was larger than that of the whole of last year; in terms of speed, the growth rate of total imports and exports in the first 11 months was still double-digit; in terms of structure, the proportion of general trade continued to increase, trade diversification continued to advance, and the total import and export volume of private enterprises increased rapidly, accounting for an increase in the proportion of total imports and exports; from a balanced perspective, towards a balanced trade.
Mao Shengyong said that in November, there were some fluctuations in the growth rate of imports and exports, especially the decline in export growth. First, there were new changes in the external environment, and the growth of the world economy and its expectations, and the pace of world trade growth slowed down; second, it was related to the same period last year. The relatively high base has a certain relationship; third, it does not rule out the weakening of the export effect of individual enterprises. Mao Shengyong said that my country's foreign trade is becoming more and more diversified, including the European Union, the United States, Japan, Southeast Asia, the "BRICS" and countries along the "Belt and Road. The import and export situation will increasingly depend on the growth of the world economy as a whole, including its ability to adapt and adjust to changes in the world economy.
"In general, the impact of Sino-US economic and trade frictions on China's economy is not obvious." Mao Shengyong said that the main indicators of China's economic operation in the first 11 months were relatively stable, and the indicators of growth, employment, prices and efficiency performed well, even better than expected. In the first 11 months, the growth rate of total import and export remained in double digits. However, due to the intensification of global trade protectionism, the development of the world economy, including the pace of world trade growth, has slowed down, which will inevitably have some impact on China and other countries.
Fixed asset investment is expected to grow steadily
According to statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, the national fixed asset investment increased by 5.9 year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded for three consecutive months. Mao Shengyong said that the current investment is stabilizing and rebounding, the speed is basically stable, and the structure is better.
"From next year, the overall steady or steady upward trend in investment is expected to continue." Mao Shengyong said that in the second half of this year, a number of major infrastructure projects that are conducive to making up for shortcomings, adjusting the structure, and benefiting the people's livelihood have been accelerated. Next year, they will be implemented better and the effect of stable investment in infrastructure will be brought into play.
From the perspective of manufacturing investment, there are many supporting factors. Although there are uncertain factors in exports, there are more domestic certainty factors, market demand is relatively stable, and manufacturing investment is supported by policies. After the introduction of greater tax and fee reduction policies next year, it will promote the development of the manufacturing industry, and the effect of the "six stability" policy will be further revealed. From a financial point of view, a prudent and neutral monetary policy will continue to improve its flexibility and effectiveness, and its support and services to the real economy will be further improved. Therefore, manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a steady growth trend.
Better tap the consumption potential
At present, the uncertainty and complexity of the world economy are increasing. However, from the perspective of the internal environment, there are more favorable factors to support the economic operation next year. Mao Shengyong analyzed that from the perspective of demand, although there have been some fluctuations in the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods this year, there is still potential for overall consumption. The size of my country's middle-income group is the largest in the world, with a market size close to the 1.4 billion population, and it is growing rapidly. Some policies introduced this year, such as raising the threshold of personal income tax and implementing the deduction policy next year, are conducive to expanding residents' consumption. Therefore, next year's consumption has the conditions to maintain steady and rapid growth, and the consumption potential should be better tapped. From the perspective of investment, there has been a trend of stabilization and recovery in the recent period. With the continuous implementation of the "six stability" policy, investment is also expected to continue the overall stability, or even a slight increase in stability.
Mao Shengyong said that China's economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development. The formulation of economic development goals for next year should reflect the new development concept and the requirements for promoting high-quality development, reflect the basic requirements of people's livelihood, especially stable employment, and basically link up with the goal of achieving the first centenary goal and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. it is necessary to take into account changes in the external environment and its own potential growth capacity.