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The National Bureau of Statistics releases economic data for the first 11 months.
Release date:
2018-12-19
Source:
On December 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic performance data for November. In November, industrial production growth slowed slightly, while mid-to-high-end industries continued to perform well. The service sector experienced steady growth, with emerging service sectors expanding particularly rapidly. Meanwhile, investment growth continued to rebound, driven by robust increases in manufacturing and private-sector investments. On the retail front, sales growth decelerated somewhat, though the share of online retail sales rose significantly. Meanwhile, both exports and imports saw slower year-on-year growth, yet the trade surplus widened compared to the same period last year.
On December 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic performance data for November. In November, industrial production growth slowed slightly, while mid-to-high-end industries continued to perform well. The service sector experienced steady growth, with emerging service sectors expanding particularly rapidly. Meanwhile, investment growth continued to pick up, driven by robust increases in manufacturing and private-sector investments. On the retail front, sales growth decelerated somewhat, though the share of online retail sales rose significantly. Finally, both imports and exports saw slower year-on-year growth, yet the trade surplus widened compared to the same period last year.
At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Mao Shengyong, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that in November, most economic indicators remained relatively stable, though several key metrics saw a slowdown in growth, signaling downward pressure on the economy. Currently, global economic uncertainty and complexity are intensifying, yet there are still numerous favorable factors supporting next year's economic performance.
Most economic indicators are performing relatively steadily.
In November, most indicators of the national economy remained relatively stable, though several key metrics saw a slowdown in growth. For instance, the year-on-year growth rate of value added by industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; similarly, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods declined by 0.5 percentage points from the prior month.
"Analyzing China's economy requires looking at it in the context of the broader global economic environment, while also taking a longer-term perspective to closely monitor its performance over time," said Mao Shengyong. He added that currently, global economic growth momentum is weakening, international trade is growing more slowly, commodity prices have fallen significantly, and several leading indicators have clearly declined—leading to increased uncertainties, challenges, and risks in the global economy.
Against this backdrop, China's economy continues to operate within a reasonable range. In terms of economic growth, during the first 11 months, industrial output expanded by 6.3% year-on-year—slightly decelerating by 0.1 percentage point compared to the first 10 months. Meanwhile, the services sector production index rose 7.7% year-on-year, also edging down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous 10-month period. Fixed-asset investment grew 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first 10 months, while total retail sales of consumer goods recorded a cumulative growth rate of 9.1%, marginally dropping by 0.1 percentage point from the prior 10 months. On the employment front, the nationwide urban surveyed unemployment rate in November stood at 4.8%, declining by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Unemployment rates in major cities remained relatively stable, and new urban job creation continued to trend upward. As for price trends, the CPI in November increased 2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the PPI climbed 2.7% year-on-year, falling by 0.6 percentage points compared to the prior month.
So far this year, new growth drivers have maintained relatively rapid expansion, while the number of market entities continues to rise significantly. New industries are growing swiftly: among industrial enterprises above a designated size, high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and strategic emerging industries all reported robust growth in value added. Meanwhile, new business models are thriving, with accelerated integration of online and offline sales channels. Online retail sales remain strong, steadily increasing their share of total retail sales of consumer goods across society. From a structural perspective, while the service sector as a whole has sustained steady and rapid growth, modern services have outpaced traditional ones. Investment trends are also stabilizing and rebounding—particularly as the investment structure continues to improve. Manufacturing investment, in particular, has shown consistent recovery since April of this year, while private-sector investment has remained robust, growing at a pace exceeding 8% so far this year.
The import and export situation has generally been better than expected.
In November, China's total imports and exports reached 2.8337 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. This growth rate was 13.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. For the first 11 months of this year, China's total trade volume came in at 27.8777 trillion yuan, up 11.1% compared to the same period last year.
Mao Shengyong stated that, looking at the first 11 months, China's import and export situation has been positive—and even better than expected. In terms of scale, the total value of imports and exports during the first 11 months already surpassed last year's full-year figure. As for growth momentum, the total import and export volume continued to expand at a double-digit rate over the same period. From a structural perspective, the share of general trade has been steadily increasing, while trade diversification efforts have gained further traction. Meanwhile, private enterprises have seen particularly strong growth in their import and export activities, driving up their overall share of the country's total trade. Finally, from the standpoint of trade balance, China has proactively lowered import tariffs and actively expanded imports, moving steadily toward achieving a more balanced trade environment.
Mao Shengyong noted that in November, the pace of import and export growth experienced some fluctuations—particularly a slowdown in export growth. This was due to three main factors: first, new changes in the external environment, with global economic growth and its outlook, as well as the pace of world trade, showing signs of deceleration; second, the relatively high base figure from the same period last year played a role; and third, it’s possible that the impact of certain companies rushing to boost exports has weakened. Mao added that China’s foreign trade is becoming increasingly diversified, reaching out to key markets such as the European Union, the United States, Japan, Southeast Asia, the BRICS nations, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. As a result, the overall import and export situation will increasingly hinge on the performance of the global economy—as well as China’s ability to adapt and adjust effectively to shifts in the global economic landscape.
"Overall, the China-U.S. economic and trade friction has not had a significant impact on China's economy," said Mao Shengyong. He noted that during the first 11 months, key economic indicators remained relatively stable, with strong performance in areas such as growth, employment, price levels, and corporate profitability—figures that even exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, the total volume of imports and exports continued to grow at a double-digit pace over the same period. However, given the intensifying global wave of trade protectionism and the resulting slowdown in the pace of global economic and trade growth, these developments are bound to exert some influence—not only on China but also on other economies around the world.
Fixed asset investment is expected to grow steadily.
According to statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, nationwide fixed-asset investment grew by 5.9% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of rebounding growth. Mao Shengyong noted that investment is currently showing signs of stabilizing and recovering, with growth rates holding steady overall and an increasingly favorable structural performance.
"Looking ahead to next year, the overall investment trend is expected to remain stable or even see a slight increase," said Mao Shengyong. He added that in the second half of this year, a batch of major infrastructure projects aimed at addressing weaknesses, optimizing economic structure, and improving people's livelihoods were accelerated, and these projects are set to be effectively implemented next year, delivering their intended impact of stabilizing investment through robust infrastructure development.
Looking at manufacturing investment, there are several strong supporting factors. While exports face some uncertainties, China itself boasts numerous stable elements, with steady market demand and robust policy backing for manufacturing investments. Moreover, next year’s introduction of even more aggressive tax and fee reduction measures is expected to further boost the growth of the manufacturing sector, allowing the "six stabilizations" policies to deliver even greater positive outcomes. On the financial front, China’s prudent and neutral monetary policy continues to enhance its flexibility and effectiveness, ensuring stronger support and improved services for the real economy. As a result, manufacturing investment is poised to maintain a steady growth trajectory.
Unleash greater consumer potential
Currently, global economic uncertainty and complexity are on the rise. However, looking at the domestic environment, there are several favorable factors that will support economic performance next year. Mao Shengyong noted that, from a demand perspective, although the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has experienced some fluctuations this year, overall consumption still holds significant potential. China boasts the world’s largest middle-income group, with a market size of nearly 1.4 billion people—and this segment is growing rapidly. Additionally, recent policy measures, such as raising the personal income tax threshold and introducing deduction policies starting next year, are expected to further boost household consumption. As a result, consumer spending is well-positioned to maintain steady, albeit faster, growth next year, while the underlying potential for consumption can be more fully unlocked. On the investment front, there has been a recent trend of stabilization and recovery. With the continued implementation and effectiveness of the "Six Stabilizations" policies, investment is also likely to remain broadly stable—or even see a modest uptick—moving forward.
Mao Shengyong stated that China's economy has transitioned from a phase of high-speed growth to one focused on high-quality development. When setting next year's economic development targets, it’s essential to reflect the new development philosophy and the need to drive high-quality growth. These goals should also prioritize people's livelihoods, particularly ensuring stable employment—a fundamental requirement—and align closely with the achievement of the first centenary goal: building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Additionally, policymakers must take into account evolving external conditions as well as the country’s inherent potential for growth.
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