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The May agricultural machinery market sentiment index stood at 42.1%, showing less-than-ideal performance.
Release date:
2018-06-13
Source:
The China Agricultural Machinery Circulation Association reported that the China Agricultural Machinery Market Index (AMI) for May 2018 stood at 42.1%, declining by 19.8 percentage points from the previous month but rising by 12.6 percentage points year-on-year. On a month-over-month basis, all six primary indices showed a downward trend, with the profitability index, inventory index, consumer sentiment index, and manager confidence index each experiencing declines of more than 20%. Meanwhile, compared to the same period last year, five of the six primary indices—including the consumer sentiment index—registered increases, with the consumer sentiment index leading the way, climbing by 16.5 percentage points. Currently, all six primary indices remain in the "downturn" range.
The China Agricultural Machinery Circulation Association reported that the China Agricultural Machinery Market Sentiment Index (AMI) for May 2018 stood at 42.1%, declining by 19.8 percentage points from the previous month but rising by 12.6 percentage points year-on-year. On a month-over-month basis, all six primary indices showed a downward trend, with the profitability index, inventory index, consumer sentiment index, and manager confidence index each experiencing declines of more than 20%. Meanwhile, compared to the same period last year, five of the six primary indices—including the profitability index (which saw a slight drop)—exhibited growth, with the consumer sentiment index leading the way, increasing by 16.5 percentage points. Currently, all six primary indices remain in the contractionary range.

The May agricultural machinery market sentiment index stood at 42.1%, showing less-than-ideal performance.
Contributing analyst Zhang Hua Guang It is observed that although May traditionally marks the peak season for the agricultural machinery market, performance this month has been disappointing. The AMI index experienced a significant month-over-month decline, falling below the critical threshold and sliding into negative territory. All six primary indices saw sharp drops compared to the previous month, pushing them into contractionary territory. In contrast, year-on-year performance was mixed: while the subsidy index remained steady, the other five primary indices recorded varying degrees of growth. Among the six secondary indices, only the harvesters and seeding machinery sectors stayed in the expansionary range; all others, however, have also entered contractionary territory. As for the eight tertiary indices, aside from the wheat and rice harvester indices—which managed to hold onto positive ground—the deep loosening machine index continued its downturn, while the remaining indices all plunged into negative territory. The substantial month-over-month decline suggests that the agricultural machinery market will likely face intense downward pressure in the coming months. Meanwhile, with the exception of the subsidy index, most other indices showed year-on-year growth, indicating that this year’s market conditions are stronger than last year’s. Several factors contributed to this trend: First, the lackluster peak season can largely be attributed to declining grain prices, which have extended equipment replacement cycles and dampened investment demand. Second, last year’s market slump created a "valley" of low sentiment, directly driving many key indices higher year-on-year this year. Finally, the sharp month-over-month decline was primarily fueled by the unusually high levels of activity in April. Given June’s typical off-season characteristics—marked by weaker consumer confidence and plummeting manager sentiment—it’s expected that the AMI will continue to weaken, with most indices remaining firmly in contractionary territory.
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